Trump, Tariffs, and Turbulence

Matthew Allgood |

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With tariffs and trade policy back in the headlines under a new Trump administration, it’s worth revisiting what happened in 2018-2019. During President Trump’s first term, the last trade war cycle brought significant volatility, with markets nearly falling into a bear market after the first escalation. Each new tariff announcement triggered sharp swings, and after two years of turbulence, the S&P 500 ended up essentially flat. 

Now, similar noisy headlines are highlighting the probability of greater volatility in the coming years. No one knows exactly how this will play out, but history suggests the market could face another drawn-out, frustrating period. This is why we rely on our RiskFirst® approach—to navigate uncertainty with disciplined process.

Trump, Tariffs, and Turbulence

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Source: Bloomberg, Redwood. Data as of 2/10/2025. Date Range from 12/1/2016 - 1/1/2020. For illustrative purposes only. 

Regards,

Allgood Financial

Disclosure: This piece is for informational purposes only and contains opinions of Redwood that should not be construed as facts. Information provided herein from third parties is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Charts and graphs are for illustrative purposes only. Discussion of any specific strategy is not intended as a guarantee of profit or loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The objectives mentioned are not guaranteed to be achieved. Investors cannot invest directly in any of the indices mentioned above. Diversification of asset class is not a guarantee against loss. RiskFirst® is a registered trademark of Redwood Investment Management, LLC.

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